2022 Hurricane Season Summary

The season officially started on June 1 and officially ended on November 30; however, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time.

Seasonal Predictions

Seasonal predictions for the Atlantic Hurricane Season now comes from numerous sources but the predictions that the Cayman Islands National Weather Service relies on are those from Colorado State University and NOAA. Analysis and predictions from these agencies indicated that there was a weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal.

Based on this analysis and predictions both agencies predicted above average season. The Colorado State team April 2020 forecast for the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season calls for 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The NOAA May 24 2022 prediction calls for 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic Hurricane season includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was an average season with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes have formed during the season.  For the Caribbean both major hurricanes impacted the area and four tropical systems passed across the southern Caribbean area.

Cayman Islands impact

The 2022 Hurricane Season impact on the Cayman Islands was limited to Hurricane Ian, although a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone 15, which later became Hurricane Lisa. The Watch was issued due to to its forecast proximity to Grand Cayman. This system passed south of Grand Cayman with no impact.

Hurricane Ian

The Government of the Cayman Islands issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands based upon its forecast track and intensity 4 p.m. September 23 2022, while the system was Tropical Depression 9. The Government of the Cayman Islands upgraded the Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman and downgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for the Sister Islands based upon its forecast track and intensity 1 p.m. September 24 2022. Hurricane Ian passed within 75 miles southwest of Grand Cayman 4 a.m. September 26 2022.

The Government of the Cayman Islands discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for the Sister Islands based upon its forecast track and intensity 4 p.m. September 26 2022.

Hurricane Ian produced maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, wave heights of 11 to 14 feet, storm surge of 2-4 feet and 2-4 inches of rainfall over Grand Cayman. While there was some coastal inundation occurred along the south coast main road there were no reported injuries or fatalities recorded.

Conclusion

In what turned out to be a near average season, the Cayman Islands received only minimal impact from the 2022 Hurricane Season in the form of the impacts associated with the passage of Hurricane Ian. The public and disaster managers are reminded that the seasonal predictions are to be used only for guidance.