It could very well be the calm before the main storms start rolling in. And that’s what makes it particularly important to guard against complacency at this time of the year.
The annual hurricane season is now entering its peak and most dangerous period.
In an update dated August 8th, the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reinforced its earlier outlook for 2024 being an abnormally active hurricane season, pointing out that it could be one of the busiest on record.
“The outlook calls for a 90% chance of above-normal activity, along with a 10% chance for near-normal activity, and negligible odds for below-normal activity,” it said.
Hurricanes Beryl and Ernesto in particular have already demonstrated their destructive power causing catastrophic impact in several Caribbean islands with a significant loss of life and extensive property damage.
“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration head Rick Spinrad. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”
The forecasting agency further states that there is a high likelihood that the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season will be another active year in the current high-activity era.
The updated 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2024 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th.
It lists 17-24 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes.
According to other weather experts monitoring the Atlantic hurricane season, 2024 is not just another active season but a critical point in a two-decade trend of increasing hurricane intensity and frequency.
“The lessons learned from the past 20 years, combined with the challenges and advancements seen in 2024, underscore the urgency of addressing the impacts of climate change on hurricane activity.”
Since the passage of Beryl and Ernesto through the region, there has been a brief lull. However, new systems with the potential for development are now rolling off the coast of West Africa into the Atlantic and churning towards the Caribbean.
“These lulls in hurricane season happen, but are usually followed by very active periods,” the Weather Channel reported, adding that the Atlantic is likely to become active again by early-mid September, the typical peak of the season.
“The large majority of season activity still lies ahead,” it cautions.
Disaster management experts are already warning that the 2024 season has already seen significant storm activity and that these early storms have set the stage for what could be a particularly devastating season.
“The emphasis is now on highlighting the importance of preparedness as we move deeper into the hurricane season.”
Our own Cayman Islands National Weather Service reports that they have slightly increased their forecast and are looking at the likelihood of an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. It also said that Hurricane Beryl was a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.
It particularly reminded Cayman residents: “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
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