Late-Season Caribbean Tropical Storm likely to form

A tropical depression is likely to form in the western Caribbean by the end of the week and will then intensify into the season's 18th named storm, Sara.

According to the Weather Channel, the broad area of low pressure that will spur this tropical development is located in the Caribbean Sea. It is now being referred to as Invest 99L, a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development.

T​he NHC has scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter flight mission into Invest 99L for Wednesday afternoon.

At any rate, this low will likely form into a tropical depression somewhere in the red-shaded area in the map below once it becomes better defined in the next few days, according to the NHC.

The Cayman Islands National Weather Service (CINWS) continues to monitor this low-pressure system. Associated rain showers are expected to impact the Cayman Islands and may persist into early next week as the system remains in the western Caribbean.

Rainfall estimates for the upcoming days are as follows:

Grand Cayman: Up to 10 inches throughout the week, with the heaviest rainfall anticipated on Friday, 15th November.

Sister Islands: Up to 8 inches throughout the week, with the heaviest rain expected on Friday, 15th November.

With ground already saturated from recent rainfall, residents are advised to prepare for an elevated risk of flooding. A Flood Warning will be in effect from 15 to 16 November.

Wind and Marine Conditions:

This system is forecast to bring increased winds and rough seas around the Cayman Islands:

Wind Speeds: Sustained winds of 15–20 knots (17-23 mph) over the next two days increasing to 20-25 knots (23-29 mph) with higher gusts expected over the weekend.

Wave Heights: 5–7 feet from Thursday to Friday, increasing to 6–8 feet from Saturday through Monday.

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 14 to 15 November, escalating to a Small Craft Warning from 16 to 18 November. Mariners are advised to exercise caution in anticipation of strong winds and high seas.

The public is encouraged to stay informed by following updates from the CINWS and Hazard Management Cayman Islands (HMCI) for further developments.

Stay safe and vigilant as we continue to monitor this situation closely.

P​ossible future track, strength:

Computer model forecast guidance indicates this system could become Tropical Storm Sara soon after first becoming a depression. And with relatively low wind shear and record warm Caribbean water for mid-November, Sara could ramp up to a hurricane late this week in the western Caribbean Sea.

Its future track is complicated and uncertain, and likely to change in the coming days, so check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates.

Sara could approach the Caribbean coast of Honduras or Nicaragua late this week, bringing heavy rain and wind. It could even stall or drift east for a few days while near Central America. It could even move inland over Central America and spin down a bit, but still produce potentially prolific rainfall, with potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beyond that, an increasing number of forecast models suggest Sara could then begin moving northwest in the western Caribbean Sea early next week.

That could bring Sara near the Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, then into the Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. It then is expected to speed up and make a sharp turn to the east, which could bring it across parts of Florida or Cuba around next Wednesday.